Friday, March 19, 2010

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The Patent Forecast

The UN recently released their report on the number of Patents applied for per country for 2009. The USA tops the list with 45,790 patent applications. This is about 54% more applications than number 2 on the list, Japan. What is surprising about the list of the top 15 countries is that 14 of them had a decrease in patent applications from 2008 to 2009 or remained relatively flat. China, on the other hand, had 29% more patent applications than the year before.

Right now, China is #5 on the list coming in with 7,946 patent applications for 2009. If China keeps up their application growth rate of 29.7% and the USA continues to decline at 11.4%, China will have more patent applications than the USA by the year 2013. This is not wholly unreasonable as China has averaged a 34% average patent application increase over the past 4 years.

Click here to see the full results, including a patent application list by country and by company. Also, the list of top 15 countries is contained at that link.

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Chinese Entrepreneurship

Over the last 10 years, China’s average rate of Entrepreneurship has averaged 14.1%. This is according to the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor that researches the percentage of the nation’s GDP generated by Entrepreneurial Activity.

So what does Entrepreneurship look like at a city by city level in China? According to a recent article in The Economist and a recent study by schools in Shenzhen & Hong Kong, entrepreneurial levels are decreasing rapidly in some of the biggest cities. Cities like Shenzhen (which had the highest rate of population growth from 1990 – 2000 out of any Chinese city) has seen it’s percentage of the population involved in entrepreneurial activity drop rapidly from 12% in 2004 to 5% in 2009.

The Universities conducting this study also noticed similar rate drops in other major Chinese cities. But on the other hand, high levels of Entrepreneurship showed up in the poor, rural cities.

This leads us into the discussion of Opportunity vs. Necessity Entrepreneurship. As cities such as Shenzhen (just north of Hong Kong on the Chinese side) develop, land prices rise, and the cost of starting a new business also rises. Most new businesses these days in Shenzhen are started out of opportunity and are not completely necessary to keep the entrepreneur alive. However, in the poor rural areas that are starting to accumulate people into future major cities, the entrepreneurial levels are high and are based upon necessity. Someone has to sell a widget to feed their family.

What we are seeing in China is that as major cities mature, their levels of corporate citizens rise and their levels of entrepreneurial activity decrease. Shenzhen’s drop of 12% to 5% is substantial.

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Google China and the Entrepreneur

In Google’s official statement about their “New Approach to China,” they praised the entrepreneur in this exert:

China’s economic reform programs and its citizens’ entrepreneurial flair have lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese people out of poverty.  Indeed, this great nation is at the heart of much economic progress and development in the world today.

We we keep an eye on the situation with Google and China on this blog.  On one side of the argument, many believe that economic progress brought about by the exchange of commerce and ideas empowers the local middle class to demand more rights to conduct their affairs, thus placing pressure on the government to instigate change.  Another argument is that a company will never be able to make change by cowering to the demands of a government to conduct business in a particular region.  But if that company decides not to do business in the region as a result, are they setting themselves up for future failure by not being in the region?

Click here for Google’s full statement.

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G.O.D. Ltd.

Photo by WiNG

Starbucks in Hong Kong - Photo by WiNG

Last week in Hong Kong, I had the opportunity to hear Mr. Douglas Young, founder and CEO of G.O.D. Ltd speak about his business.  G.O.D. stands for Goods of Desire and the company sells an array of products through 5 retail locations around Hong Kong.  Their website describes their retail presence purpose:

“We do not always present to our customers with what they want, we prefer to surprise them with something desirable that he or she has not even imagined before.”

G.O.D. has three distinguishing factors that hit you immediately: Controversy, Surprise & Hong Kong Culture.

Take the name itself.  Not many companies have taken the name of the almighty as their moniker.  G.O.D. has also released a line of clothing with an English slogan that phonetically sounds like a very bad word in the language of Hong Kong, Cantonese.  As their website explains, the name is also a play on sound:

“G.O.D. is the phonetic sound of the Cantonese slang “to live better,” because to live better is a basic human desire in Hong Kong, Asia, and the world.”

The other distinguishing factor of G.O.D. is the company’s obsession with Hong Kong culture.  When you walk into their retail stores, everything about the store screams Hong Kong, from the products, to the photography, to the employees all wearing Mao-inspired uniforms.

Mr. Young also had a hand in designing what is perhaps one of the most famous Starbucks locations in the world (see photo above).  Starbucks approached Mr. Young with an idea to slightly alter the look of one of their locations to fit the Hong Kong lifestyle.  Mr. Young took one look at their ideas and decided to start from scratch.  What he came up with was a copy of a 1950’s Hong Kong tea shop.  The design shocked the Starbucks employees in charge of the project, but eventually, the design made it all the way to Starbucks’ CEO Howard Schultz who approved it himself.  What resulted was an incredibly unique Starbucks location that made the Hong Kongers proud of their heritage.  I had a chance to visit the Starbucks and was amazed at the number of people taking photos and giving tours of the location.

Mr. Young himself is an avid photographer of all things passing.  In a city with few qualms about tearing down a historic building for a new skyscraper, Mr. Young has used his camera to capture parts of the Hong Kong lifestyle that are fading each day.

So what does all of this have to do with Entrepreneurship?  Here are three lessons I took away from Mr. Young:

  1. Mr. Young emphatically states that a large part of a product or service’s intrigue is when it is closely tied with the country of origin.  Take Burberry, Ralph Lauren, and Armani.  Mr. Young has seen countless Hong Kong companies adopt styles and attributes from other countries and/or companies as a way to increase sales.  But in return, the companies lose a part of their heritage.  Mr. Young encourages staying true to yourself and your city/country of origin and reflect what is real.  It doesn’t have to be pretty.
  2. Another lesson is that originality has a role in buying behavior.  Louis Vuitton sells an enormous quantity of handbags but very few pieces of apparel.  That is because they are known as innovators in the handbag market but just another average apparel company.  G.O.D. Ltd tries to surprise their clients, not give them what market research says they want.
  3. A final lesson is that a little bit of controversy may be a good thing for your new company.  Mr. Young is one part cultural crusader, another part nostalgic keeper, and a third part artist.  He’s been in trouble with the law and has had numerous critics all because of some of the products he has released.  But that notoriety has also led to the opportunity of working with some of the top companies from around the world on designing Hong Kong inspired products.

I leave you with G.O.D.’s mission statement:

“To Define a New Asian Identity. Asia’s climate, diet, space and culture are different from the west, why shouldn’t Asians live differently? The exciting challenge for today’s Asian designers is to define a new identity for their community.”

 
icon for podpress  G.O.D. Ltd. [4:10m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
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China’s Population

Here are the latest population figures for China by Municipality, Province, Autonomous Region, City, and Special Administrative Region:

Total Population: 1,338,612,969 (july 2009, cia.gov)

Municipality:
Beijing (Capital) – 17.4 million
Shanghai – 18.8 million
Chongqing – 31.4 million
Tianjin – 11.2 million

Province
:
Anhui – 54.7 million
Fujian – 35.8 million
Gansu – 26.1 million
Guangdong – 94.5 million
Guizhou – 37.6 million
Hainan – 8.5 million
Hebei – 69.4 million
Heilongjiang – 38.2 million
Henan – 93.6 million
Hubei – 56.9 million
Hunan – 63.5 million
Jiangsu – 76.2 million
Jiangxi – 43.7 million
Jilin – 27.3 million
Liaoning – 42.9 million
Qinghai – 5.5 million
Shaanxi – 37.5 million
Shandong – 93.6 million
Shanxi – 33.9 million
Sichuan – 81.2 million
Yunnan – 45.1 million
Zhejiang – 50.6

Autonomous Regions:
Guangxi Zhuang – 47.6 million
Inner Mongolia – 24.1 million
Ningxia Hui – 6.1 million
Tibet (Xizang) – 2.8 million
Xinjiang Uygur – 20.9 million

Special Administrative Regions:
Hong Kong – 6.9 million
Macau – 540,000

Top 10 Cities:
Shanghai – 17 million
Beijing – 13.2 million
Guangzhou – 12 million
Shenzhen – 8.6 million
Tianjin – 8.2 million
Chongqing – 7.5 million
Hong Kong – 6.9 million
Dongguan – 6.9 million
Nanjing – 6.8 million
Wuhan – 6.6 million

There are 62 Chinese cities with a population over 1 million people!

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Venture Capital Increases in India

The average amount of funding for India’s new ventures varied between US$2.5 – $5 million in the last 18 months.  This differs sharply with amounts funded before the economic downturn (US$1.5 – $2 million).  These estimates come from the Indian Venture Capital Association (IVCA).

The Times of India has predicted an even higher average amount by the middle of 2010.

The biggest reason for this increase is that venture capitalists are becoming more discriminating in their choice of businesses to fund.  In the economic downturn, only top-notch business plans are being considered.  These businesses are usually in the IT sector and require more start-up funds that other industries.

Angel investing and early-stage funding deals have decreased in number as they do not meet the financial needs of the IT start-ups.

Estimates are that VC deals in India reached as high as $600 million from January – September of 2009.  That is higher than the $500 million during a similar pre-downturn period.

The number of deals is also down during this same period to 150 compared to 250+ before.

In related news, Infosys co-founder N R Narayana Murthy recently started a new Venture Capital firm in India with an emphasis on funding businesses in nutrition, education, and basic healthcare.

 
icon for podpress  India Venture Capital [1:35m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
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Guanxi

I am in Hong Kong and just finished attending the 10th Annual Hong Kong Forum.  It is a chance for all of the Hong Kong Associations from around the world to get together and learn from one another.  HK Associations have the role of being ambassadors to their respective cities to promote Hong Kong and connect businesses.

One topic that came up during the forum was “Guanxi.”  Guanxi is what is referred to as the necessary relationships for doing business within China.  Very little can be accomplished in business in China without the right relationships.

What I found was interesting was that one of the speakers had a different take on Guanxi than what I have heard in the past.  This particular speaker made the following statement:

“The key to Guanxi is performance.  Always keep your promise.”

He went on to say that he didn’t particularly like spending time with businesspeople for the purpose of concentrating on relationships.  The key was doing what you say you will do.  A solid reputation can have just as much of a role as spending hours building relationships.

 
icon for podpress  Guanxi [1:08m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
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Hong Kong or China first?

What market should you enter first for your product or service?  Hong Kong or China?  Well, take a look at the following products/stores below to see where they started out:

Apple’s iPhone 3GS
Hong Kong Launch – July ‘09
China Launch – Nov ‘09

Zara
Hong Kong Launch – May ‘04
China Launch – Jan ‘08

Coke Zero
Hong Kong Launch – March ‘07
China Launch – February ‘08

Godiva Chocolate
Hong Kong Launch – 1998
China Launch – September ‘09

These examples all point to a Hong Kong release and then a later entrance into China.  And even though China has the large population, it might be a good idea to enter Hong Kong first.

Hong Kong has huge cachet within China as a fashion center.  A product released and successful in Hong Kong will give the product a huge boost in the mainland market.  It’s like the cool kid in school getting the newest sneakers.

Hong Kong is also an easier country to enter at this point of time.  By connecting with a Hong Kong partner, you can not only sell your product in Hong Kong but also have a partner who knows the larger Chinese market.

According to Deloitte in Hong Kong, China is expected to have the following levels of growth in the consumer expenditure during the next 4 years:

2009 – 7.8%
2010 – 11.3%
2011 – 13.6%
2012 – 15%
2013 – 16.1%

Now would be a good time to enter Hong Kong to begin to prepare your way for the rapidly expanding Chinese market.

 
icon for podpress  Hong Kong or China First? [2:00m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
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The Hong Kong Shift

Hong Kong has undergone a significant shift in the last 20 years.  They have gone from having 75% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based upon the service industry in 1990 to having 92% of their GDP based on services now.

Two important dates in Chinese history led to this shift:

  • Late 1979 – Deng Xiaoping opened up the Chinese economy to foreign investment.
  • 1 July 1997 – Hong Kong was returned to China by the British and began to exist under the “One Country, Two Systems” rule (HK maintains strict autonomy in economic matters).

The significance of these dates are that after 1979, Hong Kong was able to directly invest in China.  And after 1997, Hong Kong developed much closer ties with China, especially in the Pearl Delta Region (consisting of over 50 million people & a GDP of US$560 Billion.  Hong Kong was thus able to move most of their remaining manufacturing positions from Hong Kong to the Pearl Delta Region where labor costs were much lower.  It also set Hong Kong up with a great deal of accessible natural resources not available in tiny Hong Kong (6 miles by 6 miles).  This enabled Hong Kong to concentrate more on the service side of business.

As a result, Hong Kong’s service sector now accounts for an astonishing 92% of GDP!  The major service industries are trade, real estate, financial services, retail, and tourism.

An additional shift is that with this current global recession, Hong Kong’s service sector will be moving more towards the Chinese market.  As demand for services from Hong Kong decline in the USA, Hong Kong companies will further move their investments to China.

So, what does this mean for you?  If you are wanting to enter the Chinese market, Hong Kong would be a great place to start.  The Hong Kong service industry understands doing business internationally and it understands China.  It would be a great bridge

Also, keep an eye on Hong Kong to be the gateway for Chinese companies to enter the rest of the world market.  The same reasons that make Hong Kong a great starting place for foreigners to enter China make it a great place for Chinese companies to target the rest of the world with their products.

Other fun facts:

  • Hong Kong removed duties/taxes on wine imports.  As a result, they are now the #2 wine importer in the world
  • Hong Kong is the largest investor into China
  • Hong Kong has 6,460 persons per km2
  • HK has the #1 busiest airport for international cargo in the world
  • HK has the 3rd busiest container port in the world (2008)
  • China is predicting 8.5 – 9% growth for this year, better than the targeted 8%
  • Chongqing, a Chinese city in Sichan province has a population of over 31 million people
 
icon for podpress  The Hong Kong Shift [3:18m]: Play Now | Play in Popup | Download
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Most Entrepreneurial Countries

There are so many ways to measure which countries are the most entrepreneurial.  Of course, the Global Entrepreneur Monitor (GEM) reports by Babson University study this extensively every year. Their results are reported here.

Another way is to study the number of people researching entrepreneurship from around the world. We operate the website www.InternationalEntrepreneurship.com, which is the world’s premier site on the topic, gets hits from around the world.  Can we use this user data as a proxy for levels of entrepreneurship?  Its pretty close….  According to our analytics, the most entrepreneurial countries are:

The Philippines, India, the UK, Malaysia, Nigeria, Singapore, Canada, Kenya, and Ireland.

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